Seat Projections

During federal and provincial (Ontario only at the moment!) election campaigns, LISPOP conducts regular seat projections based on polling data produced by a collection of national polling firms.  Here you will find the latest and archived seat projections for elections dating back to 2011. 

The basis for the projections is the 'regional swing model', developed by LISPOP member Dr. Barry Kay, and explained more fully in a paper Dr. Kay presented to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Assocation, titled 'A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008'.  

It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected]