Conservative Minority Holds Steady

The following seat projection is based upon a weighted blending of polls from Environics, Ekos, Angus Reid, Nanos and Innovative research conducted from March 30 and April 6. The aggregate sample is drawn from over 6000 respondents. As we complete the second week of the election campaign, the big news is that there is no news at all. It would seem as if the early campaigning hasn't affected public opinion at all, which has been virtually static since early February. This is true not just nationally, but in each of the regions as well. The Conservative and Liberal seat totals are identical to the previous LISPOP projection. The only change is that the Conservatives lose a seat to the NDP in BC, and gain one back from the BQ in Quebec. The NDP is poised to take a second seat in Quebec as well. The Conservative lead in Ontario is 7%.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 8, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
150
74
35
49
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
13
15
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
10
14
2
49
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
55
35
16
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
25
3
3
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
28
--
--
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
19
7
10
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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