Something Stirring in Quebec?

The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum Research, Angus Reid and Nanos conducted between April 4-10, 2011, comprising over 7000 respondents. The Conservative lead in Ontario has diminished slightly to 6.5%. The accompanying projection indicates that the national and regional seat allocations have barely budged in recent weeks. One notable trend is in Quebec, where the BQ's support has slipped to 32% (compared to 38% in the last election); the NDP has jumped to 21% (versus 12% in 2008), a tie with the Liberals and slightly ahead of the Conservatives. This trend can no longer be easily dismissed as sampling error or outlying polls. It is becoming evident in a number of polling firms. The method in which the LISPOP projection is calculated emphasizes region-wide swings rather than sub-regional trends, and hence indicates only one additional seat for the NDP at the moment, Gatineau. Should there be evidence that the NDP momentum in the province is regionally concentrated as with Conservative gains in the Quebec City region in 2006, that could change the figures substantially.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 11, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
149
76
35
48
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
13
15
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
10
15
2
48
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
54
36
16
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
25
3
3
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
28
--
--
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
19
7
10
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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