Conservatives Recover Marginally

The following seat projection is based upon a blending and weighting of polls from Harris-Decima, Compas, Innovative Research, Ekos and Nanos conducted from April 6 to 13. The aggregate sample from which they are drawn consists of over 7500 respondents, most of whom were interviewed before the televised leaders' debates. Although the numbers have changed slightly from the previous projection, the overall pattern of the previous two months sustains. The simplest conclusion as we pass the campaign's midpoint, is that virtually nothing has changed, and the small variations in seat totals from projection to projection can be explained by sampling error. The one new trend previously noted, an NDP rise in Quebec, accounts for one seat change. The Ontario vote split used for this projection shows a 6% Conservative lead over the Liberals, almost exactly the same result as in 2008.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 15, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
151
75
34
48
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
14
14
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
11
14
2
48
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
54
37
15
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
25
3
3
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
28
--
--
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
19
7
10
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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