Conservatives Gravitating Towards 2008 Results

The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Nanos, Environics, Abacus, Leger, Angus Reid, Harris-Decima, Leger and Forum Research, conducted from April 11 to April 18. The number of respondents interviewed exceeded 15,000 the largest aggregate sample ever used in a LISPOP projection, prior to the final week of an election campaign. The overall projection shows only modest change from recent weeks, with the race tightening somewhat as the NDP rises slightly and the Conservatives recede a bit. The Conservative lead in Ontario over the Liberals averages at 6.5 percentage points, although the NDP figures there have rebounded as elsewhere. The most striking change of the contest has been the NDP improvement in Quebec, but until we see evidence of a regional concentration of the pattern there, it is difficult to yet allocate many seats to the New Democrats. This hesitancy could be clarified by the presence of more sub-regional polling in the province, that might reflect where the party's greatest strength lies.

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Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 20, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
145
77
38
48
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
12
16
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
10
14
3
48
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
52
37
17
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
24
3
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
28
--
--
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
19
7
10
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note:  The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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