Tsunami in Quebec

The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum research, Ipsos, Nanos and CROP (Quebec only) conducted between April 18-20. Approximately 8000 respondents are included in the aggregate figures. Quebec has marked what has been one of the most dramatic transformations of public opinion in memory, after a very static period covering the election's first three weeks. The Quebec NDP increase of 14% in a week and 20% since the last election, accompanied by a BQ decline of 10% since 2008 is historic, and suggests that the seat projection for the province is much more tenuous than usual. The model has applied the swing evenly throughout the province, and accordingly might understate NDP gains. If we were able to detect subregional patterns of NDP strength in the swing, the party might have been allocated more seats. The New Democrats also had some gains in the west, notably BC, but the Conservatives rebounded from recent slippage in Ontario.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 22, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
149
68
52
39
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
14
14
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
9
12
15
39
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
56
33
17
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
24
3
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
27
--
1
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
19
6
11
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note:  The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

Level of Government: