NDP Stll Climbing in Quebec

The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Angus Reid and Nanos conducted between April 22-26. The overall sample includes over 6000 respondents.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 27, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
147
60
69
32
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
14
12
6
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
7
10
26
32
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
56
32
18
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
24
2
5
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
27
--
1
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
19
4
13
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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