NDP Continues to Gain in Quebec

The following seat projection is drawn from a weighting and blending of polls conducted between Apr. 26 to 29. It is an adaption of the one circulated on April 30, but includes additional polls unavailable at the time including data from Nanos, Ipsos,Angus Reid, Ekos, Harris-Decima, Leger and Forum Research. The aggregate sample exceeds 10,000 respondents.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released May 01, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
144
51
98
15
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces

14

11
7
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
4
7
49
15
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
56
26
24
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
22
3
6
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta

27

--
1
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
21
4
11
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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