Post-election Trends: Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec

A blend of polls conducted by Nanos, Abacus, Angus Reid, Harris-Decima and CROP (Quebec only) between Jan. 12-23 on an aggregate sample in excess of 5000 respondents projects Conservative strength to number around 144 seats, 66 for the Liberals and 82 for the NDP. It should be clarified at the outset that as Canada will have a seat redistribution prior to the next federal election in 2015, the following results can be compared to Fantasy Football. That disclaimer acknowledged, there are some significant trends since the 2011 election, that would undoubtedly be evident regardless of the constituency boundaries. The two significant trends are the Conservative decline in Ontario dropping 19 seats almost exclusively to the Liberals and mostly in the GTA, and the NDP drop in Quebec of 24 seats, spread among the competing parties in that province. It might be added that as steep as the NDP decline is in Quebec, there are an additional half dozen seats there that the party would win very marginally with existing seat boundaries. Despite the Conservatives regaining six seats in Quebec, their losses elsewhere, especially in Ontario would deny them their current majority in parliament. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released January 30, 2012

  conservative ndp liberal bq
Other
Canada
144(167)
82(102)
66(34)
15(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
12(14)
6(6)
14(12)
--
--
Quebec
11(6)
35(58)
14(7)
15(4)
--
Ontario
54(73)
21(22)
31(11)
--
--
Prairies & North
22(25)
5(3)
4(2)
--
--
Alberta
27(27)
1(1)
--
--
--
British Columbia
18(21)
14(12)
3(2)
--
1(1)

 

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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