NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory

An analysis of polls conducted by Ipsos Reid, Nanos Research and Léger Marketing between April 2-18 on an aggregate sample of about 4000 respondents continues to project the Conservative Party seat strength to minority status, 135 seats, a loss of 31 seats from its 2011 election victory, while the New Democratic Party's strength is projected to 115 seats, a modest improvement from last year's election results. The Liberal Party's current standing is projected at 50 seats; seven seats are projected for the Bloc Québécois. The Green Party holds on to one seat. National public opinion totals showed the Conservatives with a slight lead over the NDP, and the Liberals trailing them by 10 percentage points. Regional figures vary little from the 2011 election in Quebec, but in Ontario the Conservatives dropped six percentage points, producing a 27-seat loss, mostly to the Liberals. Conservative losses in other regions largely benefited the NDP. Note: projection is based on the old constituency boundaries which will not be in effect for the 2015 election. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released May 3, 2012

  conservative ndp liberal bq
Other
Canada
135(166)
115(103)
50(34)
7(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
10(14)
9(6)
13(12)
--
--
Quebec
5(5)
56(59)
7(7)
7(4)
--
Ontario
56(73)
26(22)
24(11)
--
--
Prairies & North
20(26)
8(3)
3(2)
--
--
Alberta
27(27)
1(1)
--
--
--
British Columbia
17(21)
15(12)
3(2)
--
1(1)

 

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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