NDP Honeymoon Persists

An analysis of polls by Ipsos Reid, Harris-Decima and Forum Research, administered between April 28 and May 14, drawing an aggregate sample of over 3500 interviews, suggests continuing strength for the New Democratic Party. The current projection translates the latest poll numbers into 118 seats for the NDP, a slight three-seat gain from the last projection, and a three-seat loss for the Conservatives. The other parties' standings remain unchanged from the last projection. The NDP's gains are disproportionately in Ontario, and don't translate into many new seats there. Rather the Liberals gain more seats in that province, due to slippage by the Conservatives, and the Liberals lost many more close contests to them in the 2011 general election, particularly in the Greater Toronto area. The NDP lead over the Bloc in Quebec continues at levels similar to that in the 2011 election. Note: projection is based on the old constituency boundaries which will not be in effect for the 2015 election. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released May 18, 2012

  conservative ndp liberal bq
Other
Canada
132(166)
118(103)
50(34)
7(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
10(14)
9(6)
13(12)
--
--
Quebec
5(5)
56(59)
7(7)
7(4)
--
Ontario
52(73)
27(22)
27(11)
--
--
Prairies & North
20(26)
9(3)
2(2)
--
--
Alberta
27(27)
1(1)
--
--
--
British Columbia
18(21)
16(12)
1(2)
--
1(1)

 

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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