Federal Voting Patterns Stable

A blend of polls conducted by Forum Research and Abacus between July 25 and Aug. 12 on an aggregate sample of about 3700 respondents projects Conservative Party strength at around 133 seats, 120 seats for the New Democratic Party, 46 for the Liberal Party, 8 for the Bloc Québécois and 1 for the Green Party. The polls and seat projection indicate that popular support levels have not moved appreciably since the previous LISPOP projection three months ago. Where there has been some modest change, it is most evident where the Conservatives have gained some seats particularly at the expense of the Liberals, and the Prairie and BC regions where the NDP has picked up seats from the Conservatives. It should be remembered that this analysis is being conducted with the old constituency distribution, that will not be in effect for the next general election. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released August 22, 2012

  conservative ndp liberal bq
Other
Canada
133(166)
120(103)
46(34)
8(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
10(14)
9(6)
13(12)
--
--
Quebec
5(5)
55(59)
7(7)
8(4)
--
Ontario
59(73)
25(22)
22(11)
--
--
Prairies & North
18(26)
11(3)
2(2)
--
--
Alberta
27(27)
1(1)
--
--
--
British Columbia
14(21)
19(12)
2(2)
--
1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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