Liberals Make Some Gains

The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of about 4800 respondents conducted by Abacus, Ipsos Reid and Nanos Research between Oct. 11 and Nov. 11, 2012. There is no dramatic change from the previous LISPOP projection in early October, but there were some gains for the Liberals over the previous six weeks, mostly in Quebec and the Atlantic region. These data are all based upon the provisional redistribution maps presented earlier this year, but they do not represent the final boundaries that will be in place for the 2015 election. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released November 29, 2012

  conservative ndp liberal bq
Other
Canada
154(166)
105(103)
66(34)
12(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
10(14)
8(6)
14(12)
--
--
Quebec
7(5)
41(59)
18(7)
12(4)
--
Ontario
68(73)
26(22)
27(11)
--
--
Prairies & North
18(26)
10(3)
3(2)
--
--
Alberta
33(27)
1(1)
--
--
--
British Columbia
18(21)
19(12)
4(2)
--
1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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