January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority

The following projection is based upon a blended sample of over 4600 respondents polls from Angus Reid and Forum Research conducted between Jan. 2 and Jan. 18. The numbers represent a gain of fifteen seats for the Conservatives since the previous federal LISPOP projection two months ago mostly from the Liberals, with slight increases in every region of the country but the largest pickup in the Prairies. It should be cautioned that the projection uses the tentative boundary changes in the various provinces, not the final ones. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released January 30, 2013

  conservative ndp liberal bq
Other
Canada
169(166)
103(103)
54(34)
11(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
13(14)
6(6)
13(12)
--
--
Quebec
8(5)
45(59)
14(7)
11(4)
--
Ontario
71(73)
28(22)
22(11)
--
--
Prairies & North
23(26)
6(3)
2(2)
--
--
Alberta
33(27)
1(1)
--
--
--
British Columbia
21(21)
17(12)
3(2)
--
1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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