Liberals Surge in Quebec

The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of over 5500 respondents in polls conducted by Ipsos, Forum Research and Abacus from mid-August to mid-September. The only substantial change from the previous LISPOP projection in early July occurred in Quebec, where NDP support dropped significantly moving mostly to the Liberals. Still this configuration of popular vote levels indicated that Justin Trudeau's party is quite distant from a majority. The 2011 results are in brackets. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released September 23, 2014

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
140(34)
127(166)
63(103)
7(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
24(12)
5(14)
3(6)
--
--
Quebec
40(7)
11(5)
20(59)
7(4)
--
Ontario
53(11)
51(73)
17(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
7(2)
15(26)
9(3)
--
--
Alberta
2(0)
31(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
14(2)
14(21)
13(12)
--
1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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