Slight Conservative Rise

The following seat projection is based upon a series of polls released between mid-December and mid-January by Abacus, Ekos, Forum Research, Ipsos Reid and Leger Marketing. They involved a blended and weighted aggregation of regional samples among over 20,000 respondents interviewed in various ways. The net result presented below showed relatively little overall change from the previous LISPOP projection released Dec. 9, 2014, but the Conservative numbers did rise slightly on balance, largely attributable to a modest increase in support in Ontario. At the same time, Conservative support declined somewhat in British Columbia. The most obvious conclusion to be drawn from these data however is that public opinion has been relatively static over the previous month, and that no party is anywhere near a majority status. 

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released January 22, 2015

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
120(34)
134(166)
79(103)
4(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
22(12)
7(14)
3(6)
--
--
Quebec
28(7)
8(5)
38(59)
4(4)
--
Ontario
48(11)
56(73)
17(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
7(2)
17(26)
7(3)
--
--
Alberta
2(0)
31(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
13(2)
15(21)
13(12)
--
1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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