Liberals Slip in Quebec

The following projection is based upon a blended aggregation of polls conducted in March, 2015 among some 18,000 respondents by Abacus, Ekos, Forum and Leger Marketing. The basic finding is similar to projections we have seen since this past December, a minority parliament with no party close to the required 170 seats for a majority, but the Conservatives in first place. As each new set of polls is considered, there are slight variations from region to region but the net effect has been consistently similar. Ontario and Atlantic Canada have not changed since the previous LISPOP projection, but the Conservatives dropped slightly in BC and Alberta, and have improved in Quebec largely at the expense of the Liberals. The Liberal decline in Quebec might be partially attributable to the larger proportion of polling conducted by Ekos this past month. As noted in the previous LISPOP report, we found that polling firm shows the Conservatives higher and the Liberals lower in their Quebec numbers than other companies. Map can be viewed at http://lispop.ca/elections/fed2015.html

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released April 8, 2015

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
141(166)
115(34)
76(103)
5(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
5(14)
24(12)
3(6)
--
--
Quebec
14(5)
21(7)
38(59)
5(4)
--
Ontario
57(73)
48(11)
16(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
18(26)
8(2)
5(3)
--
--
Alberta
29(27)
4(0)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
18(21)
10(2)
13(12)
--
1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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