NDP Maintains Momentum

The accompanying seat projection is drawn from a blended sample of surveys from such pollsters as Abacus, Ekos and Ipsos Reid that were conducted since May 6. This included some 11,000 interviews, but excluded surveys that were partially conducted prior to the Alberta election, because that event seemed to coincide with a dramatic change in public opinion swinging to the New Democratic Party. That trend was most evidenced in Quebec voting patterns, but was also apparent in the western provinces. The relative three-way split found in national opinion polls of late, masks significant regional divisions, with the NDP dominant in Quebec, the Conservatives strongest in the rural west, and the Liberals supreme in Atlantic Canada, with Ontario largely divided between Liberal urban support, and the Conservatives well ahead in rural areas and smaller communities. The Ontario projection was based upon a slight one percetange-point Conservative lead over the Liberals in aggregate vote, but in Quebec the NDP lead in popular support was 14 percentage points over the Liberals. Among other observations to be noted, none of the parties is anywhere near majority government territory. Along the table presented below, the seat projection is also illustrated on a map of Canada's new 338 districts, which will be contested in the next federal election: http://lispop.ca/elections/fed2015.html.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released June 9, 2015

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
124(166)
102(34)
108(103)
3(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
6(14)
22(12)
4(6)
--
--
Quebec
8(5)
15(7)
52(59)
3(4)
--
Ontario
54(73)
47(11)
20(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
15(26)
7(2)
9(3)
--
--
Alberta
27(27)
2(0)
5(1)
--
--
British Columbia
14(21)
9(2)
18(12)
--
1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

Level of Government: