Conservatives Move Into First Place

The following seat projection is based upon a weighted and blended aggregation of some 12,000 respondents drawn from surveys by Abacus Data, Ekos Research Associates, Forum Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos Reid, Leger Marketing and Nanos Research conducted between Sept. 17 through Sept. 27. For the first time in five months, the Conservative Party has taken over the lead  in seats, benefitting from the New Democratic Party’s decline, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia. They also gained from a small Liberal slide in Ontario. That said, Stephen Harper's party is still more than 44 seats away from a parliamentary majority. It might be added that one poll suggesting dramatic movement toward the Conservatives, and causing inordinate media attention as a result, proved to be an outlier when placed alongside the seven other polls conducted during the period.

 
Canada 126(166) 106(103) 104(34) 1(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 3(14) 6(6) 23(12)    
Quebec 9(5) 54(59) 14(7) 1(4)  
Ontario 54(73) 19(22) 48(11)    
Prairies & North 15(26) 9(3) 7(2)    
Alberta 29(27) 2(1) 3(0)    
British Columbia 16(21) 16(12) 9(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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