Liberal Minority Government Seems Highly Probable (Revised - Oct. 18)

Momentum for the Liberal party in Ontario seems to have finally abated, but in the last three weeks the pary has turned around a one percentage-point deficit to the Conservative party in the province to an 11-point lead. That has placed the party securely in first place, nationally. The following projection is based upon a weighted averaging of polls from Angus Reid, Ekos Research Associates, Forum Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos Reid, Mainstreet and Nanos Research conducted between Oct. 13-17 among over 12,000 respondents.

Canada 115(166) 79(103) 140(34) 3(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 4(14) 4(6) 24(12)    
Quebec 13(5) 40(59) 22(7) 3(4)  
Ontario 38(73) 15(22) 68(11)    
Prairies & North 18(26) 5(3) 8(2)    
Alberta 29(27) 2(1) 3(0)    
British Columbia 13(21) 13(12) 15(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at

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