Federal seat projection - April 2019

With six months to go before the upcoming federal election, the following projection was developed using a blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April. Collectively this included over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down weighted in the process. The accompanying table indicated that the Liberal Party has dropped some thirty seats since the previous LISPOP projection six months ago. The Conservatives have made comparable gains during the period, and it produces the prospect of a minority government.

Liberal support has eroded in every region except Quebec, where they dominate and maintain a 17% lead in popular vote over the Conservatives. By contrast, support levels in Ontario are a virtual dead heat between the parties. The SNC-Lavalin controversy is clearly associated with the Liberal decline outside Quebec, but the Conservative narrative has as yet been unable to create a sustainable wave in their direction.

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Table 1: Federal Seat projections - April 2019 (2015 election results in brackets)

 
Canada 157 (184) 148 (99) 27 (44) 3 (10) 2 (1) 1
Atlantic 21 (32) 10 (0) 1 - - -
Quebec 60 (40) 12 (12) 2 (16) 3 (10) - 1
Ontario 53 (80) 55 (33) 13 (8) - - -
Prairies / North 9 (8) 21 (18) 1 (5) - - -
Alberta 0 (4) 33 (29) 1 (1) - - -
British Columbia 14 (17) 17 (10) 9 (14) - 2 (1) -

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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