Liberals Gain Slightly on Coasts

The following projection is based upon a series of public polls released during August, 2019, by Abacus Data, Campaign Research, Ekos Research, Ipsos, Leger Marketing and Nanos Research,  producing a blended and weighted sample of more than 10,000 respondents. The Liberal Party of Canada leads with 158 seats, followed by the Conservative Party of Canada with 135 seats. The New Democratic Party is projected with 25 seats, the Bloc Québécois with 13 seats, the Green Party with five seats, and one each for an independent candidate and the People’s Party of Canada. This is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution might have looked like during the month of August.

Despite national polling numbers showing a virtual tie between the Liberal and Conservative Parties, the Liberal vote continues to be more efficiently distributed. This is particularly true in regions that have more competitive swing ridings, notably urban and suburban Ontario. Compared to the previous LISPOP projection of August 12, public opinion has barely moved in the five provinces spanning Alberta in the west through Quebec in the east. The only areas that produced noticeable difference from July data were British Columbia and the Atlantic region, both tilting a bit more Liberal. That noted, public opinion has basically stalled, and these numbers continue to point toward a minority government.

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Table 1: Federal Seat projections - September 2019 (2015 election results in brackets)

  Independents
Canada 135 (99) 158 (184) 25 (44) 13 (10) 5 (1) 1 1
Atlantic 7 (0) 25 (32) - - - - -
Quebec 12 (12) 50 (40) 2 (16) 13 (10) - 1 -
Ontario 44 (33) 63 (80) 14 (8) - - - -
Prairies / North 23 (18) 7 (8) 1 (5) - - - -
Alberta 33 (29) - (4) 1 (1) - - - -
British Columbia 16 (10) 13 (17) 7 (14) - 5 (1) - 1

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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