Slight NDP Decline in Final Pre-election Projection

The following LISPOP projection is based upon a series of polls released between Aug. 29 and Sept.11 from nine different companies, producing a blended sample of over 12,000 respondents. The Liberal Party of Canada leads with 161 seats, followed by the Conservative Party of Canada with 135 seats. The New Democratic Party is projected with 21 seats, the Bloc Québécois with 13 seats, the Green Party with six seats, and one each for an independent candidate and the People’s Party of Canada. This is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution might have looked like during the month of August.

Change from other recent projections was remarkably modest. As has been the pattern for almost two months, public opinion appears to have basically stalled throughout the country. The greatest change since the previous projection has been NDP slippage in Ontario and Quebec.

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Table 1: Federal Seat projections - September 12 2019 (2015 election results in brackets)

  Independents
Canada 161 (184) 135 (99) 21 (44) 13 (10) 6 (1) 1 1
Atlantic 25 (32) 7 (0) - - - - -
Quebec 51 (40) 12 (12) 1 (16) 13 (10) - 1 -
Ontario 65 (80) 44 (33) 12 (8) - - - -
Prairies / North 8 (8) 22 (18) 1 (5) - - - -
Alberta - (4) 33 (29) 1 (1) - - - -
British Columbia 12 (17) 17 (10) 6 (14) - 6 (1) - 1

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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