Pre-Debate Polls Lift Bloc into Third Place

The following Seat Projection was based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls by Ipsos, Mainstreet, Nanos, Abacus, Campaign Research, Forum and Leger released prior to the English language televised debate on Oct. 7. Over 14,000 respondents were contacted in the various surveys. Change was quite modest compared to the previous LISPOP projection, with the exception of the Bloc Quebecois continued rise in Quebec. This has caused the Bloc to now surpass the NDP into third place. The Liberals continue to lead with 156 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 137, the BQ with 20, the NDP with 18, the Green Party with 5, and one each for the People's Party and an Independent. This is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution  might have looked like during the first week of October.

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Table 1: Federal Seat projections - Oct 8 2019 (2015 election results in brackets)

  Independents
Canada 156 (184) 137 (99) 18 (44) 20 (10) 5 (1) 1 1
Atlantic 25 (32) 7 (0) - - - - -
Quebec 46 (40) 11 (12) - (16) 20 (10) - 1 -
Ontario 66 (80) 45 (33) 10 (8) - - - -
Prairies / North 7 (8) 23 (18) 1 (5) - - - -
Alberta - (4) 33 (29) 1 (1) - - - -
British Columbia 12 (17) 18 (10) 6 (14) - 5 (1) - 1

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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