Small Parties Continue Surge

The following projection is based on polls released since Oct. 13 from Ipsos, Nanos, Angus Reid and Mainstreet, amounting to an aggregate sample of about 8,000 respondents. The Liberals’ lead has narrowed to 134 seats, with the Conservatives close behind at 132 seats. The Bloc Québécois is projected with 35 seats, the New Democratic Party with 31, the,  the Green Party with four, and one seat each for an independent candidate and the People's Party. This is not intended to be a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution might have looked like at mid-October.

The momentum identified with the Bloc Québécois and the NDP has not yet ebbed as we move into the final days of the election campaign. Among other things, it suggests the near certainty of a minority parliament, and the uncertainty as to which party will garner the most seats in this Monday's election. The gains of the BQ and NDP have been largely at the expense of the Liberals, which has led to a near tie between them and the Conservatives in this projection.

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Table 1: Federal Seat projections - Oct 16 2019 (2015 election results in brackets)

  Independents
Canada 134 (184) 132 (99) 31 (44) 35 (10) 4 (1) 1 1
Atlantic 24 (32) 7 (0) 1 (0) - - - -
Quebec 33 (40) 8 (12) 1 (16) 35 (10) - 1 -
Ontario 58 (80) 47 (33) 16 (8) - - - -
Prairies / North 7 (8) 20 (18) 4 (5) - - - -
Alberta - (4) 33 (29) 1 (1) - - - -
British Columbia 12 (17) 17 (10) 8 (14) - 4 (1) - 1

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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