Late Trends Stabilize

The final LISPOP seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted aggregation of polls from Ipsos, Mainstreet, Nanos, Campaign Research, Abacus, and Leger, amounting to more than 12,000 respondents, and released since Oct. 18.  Analysis projects 138 seats for the Liberal Party, 127 for the Conservative Party with 127, 36 for the Bloc Québécois, 34 for the New Democratic Party, two for the Green Party, and one independent. This is not intended to be a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution might look based on voting intentions.

The late momentum of the Bloc Québécois and NDP has stabilized, but stopped increasing, and in the process has blocked the prospect of a majority government

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Table 1: Federal Seat projections - Oct 20 2019 (2015 election results in brackets)

  Independents
Canada 138 (184) 127 (99) 34 (44) 36 (10) 2 (1) - 1
Atlantic 23 (32) 7 (0) 2 (0) - - - -
Quebec 32 (40) 8 (12) 2 (16) 36 (10) - - -
Ontario 67 (80) 41 (33) 13 (8) - - - -
Prairies / North 6 (8) 22 (18) 3 (5) - - - -
Alberta - (4) 33 (29) 1 (1) - - - -
British Columbia 10 (17) 16 (10) 13 (14) - 2 (1) - 1

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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