Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority

The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of polls from Nanos, Ekos and Leger conducted between March 28 and April 2. It includes interviews with over 8000 respondents. As with other recent projections since early February, the overall numbers represent only marginal shifting which hardly exceeds sampling error in most regions.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released April 6, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
150
74
33
51
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
13
15
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
9
14
1
51
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
55
35
16
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
25
3
3
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
28
--
--
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
20
7
9
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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