Seat Projection - Liberal Seat Gains in Quebec

The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls among over 12,000 respondents conducted by Mainstreet, Campaign Research and Nanos between Dec. 23 and Jan. 19, although the vast majority took place in January 2018. It is the first LISPOP projection presented since the 2015 federal election. The most significant changes in popular vote since the election have occurred in Quebec where the New Democrats have lost approximately 10% support mostly to the Liberals, and in BC where the NDP has also lost 10% support largely to the Greens. Cumulatively if these trends had occurred in an election, it would have left the NDP losing almost half of its parliamentary seats. The Liberals net gain in seats is exclusively attributable to the province of Quebec. The more modest Conservative gains come mostly from Ontario and New Brunswick. The NDP seat decline in BC is shared among each of the other parties, even though the transfer of votes is largely to the Green Party.

Table 1: Federal Seat projections - January 25. 2018 (2015 election results in brackets)

 
Canada 201 (184) 104 (99) 23 (44) 4 (10) 3 (1)
Atlantic 27 (32) 4 (0) 1 (0) - -
Quebec 65 (40) 6 (12) 3 (16) 4 (10) -
Ontario 75 (80) 38 (33) 8 (8) - -
Prairies 7 (8) 20 (18) 4 (5) - -
Alberta 4 (4) 29 (29) 1 (1) - -
British Columbia 20 (17) 12 (10) 7 (14) - 3 (1)
Territories 3 (3) - -    

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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