A weighted and blended aggregation of polls conducted since the May 11 northern debate among some 8000 respondents reinforce the impression that Andrea Horwath's NDP has the momentum in the Ontario election contest. Polls from Abacus, Ipsos, Ekos, Mainstreet and Innovative Research estimate that popular support levels in the province at this time are Conservative 38%, NDP 33%, and Liberal 23%. When translating this into seats through the LISPOP algorithm, the totals are Conservative 69, NDP 39 and Liberal 16. Given that 63 seats are required for a legislative majority, Doug Ford is slipping into precarious territory but is still positioned for that majority. An examination of the accompanying LISPOP map of ridings suggests that when one omits the grey "Too Close to Call" constituencies where no party's lead has reached a winning margin greater than 5%, the Conservatives have 53 seats, the NDP 31, and the Liberals 7. In other words, while the Conservatives have the largest number of seats, a majority is by no means assured at the moment, as we head toward a crucial leadership debate on May 27.
Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963.