Conservative Seat Lead Narrows as Liberals Sink

The following projection is based upon a weighted aggregation of seven polls released since May 23, among 7000 respondents. Only a minority of the interviews have been conducted since the May 27 leadership debate. The popular support levels reflected by these data are NDP-38%, Conservatives -35%, and Liberals-20%. Certain constituency polls, not presented here, were also considered in the accompanying riding map. This translates into a seat projection of Conservatives 63, NDP 54, and Liberals 7. These numbers would place the Conservatives right at the cusp of a majority. It might also be noted that among the constituencies categorized as "too close to call" are the ridings being contested by both the Conservative and Liberal leaders.

 

63 54 7

 

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Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. 

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