A Public Opinion Tie Means the Tories Win

A weighted and blended aggregation  of polls from Abacus, Pollara, Ekos. Forum and Research Co. conducted among some 8000 respondents that have been released since May 31 suggest that the NDP surge has stopped, and for the first time during the campaign their support level has slightly declined. The following projection estimates that the provincial vote distribution is NDP-37%, Conservatives-37% and Liberals -19%. Because the Conservative vote is more evenly and efficiently distributed across Ontario, this translates into a seat allocation of Conservatives 67, NDP 51, Liberals 5, and Greens 1. These data for the most part were collected prior to Kathleen Wynne's concession announcement. This isn't necessarily the final LISPOP projection of the campaign. If there are sufficient new polls released, another iteration might be presented before June 7.

 

67 51 5 1

 

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Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. 

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