Federal

Minority Government Likely as Bloc Surges

The following projection is based on aggregated polling data since the Oct. 10 televised debate with an estimated sample size of more than 10,000 respondents. The Liberals continue to lead with 143 seats, followed closely by the Conservatives with 136. The New Democratic Party is projected with 24 seats, 29 for the Bloc Québécois, four seats for the Green Party, plus one seat each for an independent candidate and the People's Party.

Pre-Debate Polls Lift Bloc into Third Place

The following Seat Projection was based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls by Ipsos, Mainstreet, Nanos, Abacus, Campaign Research, Forum and Leger released prior to the English language televised debate on Oct. 7. Over 14,000 respondents were contacted in the various surveys. Change was quite modest compared to the previous LISPOP projection, with the exception of the Bloc Quebecois continued rise in Quebec. This has caused the Bloc to now surpass the NDP into third place.

Liberals Bounce Back from Second Scandal

The following projection is based upon a series of polls released between Sept. 26 to 30 from Ipsos, Leger, Abacus, Nanos, Innovative, Ekos and Campaign Research, producing a blended and weighted sample of more than 10,000 respondents. The Liberals currently lead with 158 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 136, the New Democratic Party with 20, the Bloc Québécois with 17,  the Green Party with five, plus one Independent and one for the People's Party. These numbers are very similar to the LISPOP projection at the end of August.

"Blackface" Reverses Liberal Trend

The following projection is based on a series of polls released between Sept. 20 to 24, since the embarrassing photos of Justin Trudeau were made public. It draws from a blended and weighted sample of 11,000 respondents from surveys administered by Ipsos, DART, Nanos, Angus Reid, Ekos, Abacus and Forum. The Liberal Party continues to lead with 150 seats, a decline of 15 seats from last week’s projection. The Conservatives edge closer behind with 142 seats. The NDP gained two seats to bring it up to 22, the Bloc Québécois gained four to currently stand at 17.

Liberals Edge Closer to Majority

The following projection is based upon a series of polls released between Sept. 8 to 16 from Ipsos, Nanos, DART, Abacus and Leger, producing a blended and weighted sample of more than 8000 respondents. The Liberal Party leads with 165 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 133, the New Democrats with 20, the Bloc Quebecois with 13, the Greens with 5, and one each for the People's Party and an Independent. This is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution during the opening week of the election campaign.