Federal

Election Post Mortem 2015

LISPOP has been in the practice of providing a post mortem of its seat projection since it went online for the 2004 election. It consists of two tables, the first comparing our final pre-election seat projection of October 18 with the results reported on October 20, and the projection with the actual vote results. The second table compares the aggregate regional splits in late polls used for the final projection with the popular vote totals by region.

Liberal Minority Government Seems Highly Probable (Revised - Oct. 18)

Polls conducted between October 13 and 17 by Angus Reid, Ekos Research Associates, Forum Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos Reid, Mainstreet and Nanos Research on a blended sample of more than 12,000 respondents projects 140 seats for the Liberal party, enough for a minority. Continue for more details...

Liberal Surge in Ontario Continues

Polls conducted between October 7 and 14 by Angus Reid, Ekos, Forum, Innovative Research, Ipsos, and Nanos on a blended sample of more than 6,000 respondents projects 110 seats for the Conservative Party, 80 seats for the New Democratic Party, 144 for the Liberals, three for the Bloc Québécois and one for the Green Party.

Ontario Swing Points to Liberal Minority Government

Polls conducted between October 5 and 11, by Abacus, Angus Reid, Ekos, Innovative, Leger, Forum, Mainstreet, and Nanos on a blended sample of more than 18,000 respondents projects 122 seats for the Conservative Party, 84 seats for the New Democratic Party, 128 for the Liberals, three for the Bloc Québécois and one for the Green Party.

Momentum Shifts to Liberals as NDP Slips in Quebec

Polls conducted between Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2015, by Angus Reid, Forum Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos Reid, Leger Marketing and Nanos Research on a blended sample of more than 10,000 respondents projects 123 seats for the Conservative Party, 98 seats for the New Democratic Party, 113 for the Liberals, three for the Bloc Québécois and one for the Green Party.