Federal

Election 43 Post-mortem

It has been the custom for LISPOP to produce a post-mortem analyzing the final pre-election projection using the actual election vote splits rather than the aggregation of pre-election polls by region. As indicated in the table below, the first number by party in each region was the pre-election projection, the second number in brackets is the post-election projection using actual voting data, and the final number is the real number of seats won. Our pre-election projection was Libs-138, Cons-127, BQ-36, NDP-34 Greens -2 and Independent-1.

Late Trends Stabilize

The final LISPOP seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted aggregation of polls from Ipsos, Mainstreet, Nanos, Campaign Research, Abacus, and Leger, amounting to more than 12,000 respondents, and released since Oct. 18.  Analysis projects 138 seats for the Liberal Party, 127 for the Conservative Party with 127, 36 for the Bloc Québécois, 34 for the New Democratic Party, two for the Green Party, and one independent. This is not intended to be a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution might look based on voting intentions.

Small Parties Continue Surge

The following projection is based on polls released since Oct. 13 from Ipsos, Nanos, Angus Reid and Mainstreet, amounting to an aggregate sample of about 8,000 respondents. The Liberals’ lead has narrowed to 134 seats, with the Conservatives close behind at 132 seats. The Bloc Québécois is projected with 35 seats, the New Democratic Party with 31, the,  the Green Party with four, and one seat each for an independent candidate and the People's Party.

Minority Government Likely as Bloc Surges

The following projection is based on aggregated polling data since the Oct. 10 televised debate with an estimated sample size of more than 10,000 respondents. The Liberals continue to lead with 143 seats, followed closely by the Conservatives with 136. The New Democratic Party is projected with 24 seats, 29 for the Bloc Québécois, four seats for the Green Party, plus one seat each for an independent candidate and the People's Party.

Pre-Debate Polls Lift Bloc into Third Place

The following Seat Projection was based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls by Ipsos, Mainstreet, Nanos, Abacus, Campaign Research, Forum and Leger released prior to the English language televised debate on Oct. 7. Over 14,000 respondents were contacted in the various surveys. Change was quite modest compared to the previous LISPOP projection, with the exception of the Bloc Quebecois continued rise in Quebec. This has caused the Bloc to now surpass the NDP into third place.