Conservatives Now Clearly in the Lead

The following projection for LISPOP (Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy) and Global News is based upon a series of polls conducted during May, 2019 by Nanos, Angus Reid and Campaign Research producing a blended sample of some 6800 respondents. It should also be clarified that this is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but rather an estimate of parliamentary seat distribution translated from popular support during May.

Federal seat projection - April 2019

With six months to go before the upcoming federal election, the following projection was developed using a blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April. Collectively this included over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down weighted in the process. The accompanying table indicated that the Liberal Party has dropped some thirty seats since the previous LISPOP projection six months ago.

Federal seat projection - October 2018

Visitors to the LISPOP website will note that there has been no federal seat projection since this past January. That is because there has been a scarcity of polling data upon which these projections are based. Even now they are still limited. As a result the following projection is drawn from polling data aggregated by Eric Grenier at the CBC. At other times our polling aggregation methods are somewhat different. For example, at LISPOP we typically weight the impact of polls by sample size, and down weight those conducted by IVR (robopolls), which has differed from other methodologies.

Seat Projection - Liberal Seat Gains in Quebec

The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls among over 12,000 respondents conducted by Mainstreet, Campaign Research and Nanos between Dec. 23 and Jan. 19, although the vast majority took place in January 2018. It is the first LISPOP projection presented since the 2015 federal election. The most significant changes in popular vote since the election have occurred in Quebec where the New Democrats have lost approximately 10% support mostly to the Liberals, and in BC where the NDP has also lost 10% support largely to the Greens.

Election Post Mortem 2015

LISPOP has been in the practice of providing a post mortem of its seat projection since it went online for the 2004 election. It consists of two tables, the first comparing our final pre-election seat projection of October 18 with the results reported on October 20, and the projection with the actual vote results. The second table compares the aggregate regional splits in late polls used for the final projection with the popular vote totals by region.