Little Change in Past Month

Since the previous LISPOP seat projection was released four weeks ago, five new Ontario election polls have been released by Abacus, Ekos, Ipsos, Mainstreet and Forum, encompassing an aggregate sample of over 8000 respondents. However their collective impact suggests negligible change over the period, despite the presentation of Premier Wynne's budget. The overall popular support levels suggested were Conservatives 41%, Liberals 27%, and NDP 25%, leading to a revised projection of Conservatives 80 seats, Liberals 22 seats, and NDP 22seats.

Ontario PCs Begin Campaign with a Big Lead

In the wake of the Ontario Conservative leadership contest, four new polls have been published, all of which confirm the basic trend pointing to a majority victory for the party. The data from Ipsos, Leger, Campaign Research and Forum was based upon over 4300 weighted interviews held between March 11-14. In the aggregate, the provincial distribution of party support was Conservatives 43%, Liberals 27%, and NDP 25%.