Is it too late to pull the country back from the brink of a late summer or early fall federal election?
Yes, I know the polls have spoken. They have told the prime minister that a majority Liberal government is within his reach now, but that the window of opportunity may not be open for long. If he waits, then falls short of a majority – or worse – his delay will go down as one of the great gaffes of contemporary Canadian elections.
Political opportunism says damn the torpedoes! Go now, go hard, go fast!
The public interest, however, argues the reverse. Wait! There is no need for another election less than two years after the last one (in October 2019). Take care of business first. So much is unfinished, or barely begun or not addressed at all.
The COVID-19 crisis, not yet subdued in North America and still raging elsewhere, is a powerful argument for waiting.
What would the country have to gain from an early election? The Liberal government is no way obstructed by its minority status. Inconvenienced, perhaps. Delayed, somewhat. Irritated, undoubtedly. But blocked or impeded? Not to any significant extent. The Liberals just have to work a bit harder than they would if they had a majority.
As far as I can discern, voters are not beating a path to Parliament Hill to demand an election, and if the Liberals are planning measures they could not accomplish with their minority, they have not shared them with the public.
An election now would, I submit, divert the focus of the nation’s political leadership and the public at large from job one, which has to be getting Canadians vaccinated, stamping out the pandemic within our borders, building a nation-wide defence against a return of COVID, giving all possible aid to countries in peril of losing the war against the virus, and getting ready for the inevitable next international health crisis.
There’s a comfortable assumption among North Americans what the worst is over with COVID. A glance at recent reports from around the world reveals how hollow this assumption is.
On Friday, for example, New Zealand shut down its quarantine-free travel bubble with Australia for the next two months because of outbreaks of the Delta variant on its island neighbour. Half of Australia’s population is under some form of lockdown and New South Wales, the most populous state, has declared a “national emergency.”
Also on Friday, Indonesia reported its worst COVID day with 49,071 new infections and a record 1,566 deaths, bringing the country’s overall cases to 3,082,410 and deaths to 80,598. The Philippines banned children aged 5-17 from leaving their homes until the end of July and barred entry of travellers from Malaysia and Thailand. Vietnam moved to combat the Delta variant by imposing a strict lockdown in Ho Chi Minh City (the former Saigon).
Sweden reported a week-over-week increase of 24 per cent increase in COVID cases and Denmark put all of the United Kingdom, except Wales, on its travel “red list.”
The Olympic Summer Games opened in Tokyo, with no spectators in the stands, on a day when COVID was surging in the city, when 5,387 new cases were reported across Japan, and the country remained under a state of emergency.
Also in the news: warnings from health experts in various countries who do not expect the coronavirus to go away any time soon; they say it may be here to stay.
Would it be asking too much for the prime minister to put his ambition for a majority, and the opposition leaders their dreams of upsetting him, on pause until they and the country are ready? Would it be unreasonable to ask that each party prepare and present to the public its plan or program for dealing with COVID now and, looking ahead, with COVID and future epidemics that may be lurking over the horizon?
There are issues that need to be discussed – among others, the need for an effective early-warning system; appropriate air travel and border controls; vastly improved communications among the federal and provincial governments, and between governments (including their health experts) and the public; enforceable national standards for long-term care; priority creation of a Canadian capacity for vaccine production.
Let the parties present their plans. Give the public time to think about them. Listen to the people’s responses. Then have an election. Canada is a pretty durable place. If need be, it could even survive another year or two of these minority Liberals.
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail. His new book, Flora! A Woman in a Man’s World, co-authored with the late Flora MacDonald, is being published this fall by McGill-Queen’s University Press. His column appears Mondays. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com.