Let’s circle four days in September – Saturday, Sept. 10 through Tuesday, the 13th.
These dates, a week before Parliament returns from its summer recess, will be the most significant ones in the 2022 political calendar since March 22, the day when the Liberals and New Democrats signed their non-aggression pact to keep the minority government in power until 2025. Under the unprecedented “Supply and Confidence Agreement,” the NDP promised to protect the Liberals’ back from unwanted elections in exchange for action on selected NDP policies – a commitment that the Liberals, moving at the pace of a sedated turtle, are not rushing to honour.
The NDP is not happy. Its caucus leaders are signalling impatience. They need to demonstrate to the party faithful that casting NDP’s lot with the Liberals’ is producing otherwise unattainable benefits. So far, they have nothing tangible to display. Collapse of the agreement is the last thing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau needs on the eve, or in the wake, of the four days in September.
Sept. 10 is the day when Pierre Poilievre, the pit bull of Parliament Hill, will become the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. Poilievre is an exceptional character. He is singularly proficient at nursing the public’s grievances, large and small, real and imagined, serving them up as outrageous violations of Canadians’ freedoms, and using them as a sledgehammer in his effort to demolish the character and credibility of the prime minister.
It is an open question whether Poilievre’s campaign is contributing to a decline in Trudeau’s popularity, or benefiting from the decline – likely, a bit of both. The PM has been running behind his party, and in a national survey by Abacus Data in late July, 51 per cent of respondents said they had a negative impression of Trudeau while only 31 per cent reported a positive impression. Poilievre recognizes his opportunity. Unless he listens to CPC moderates – there is said to be a first time for everything – he can be expected to pursue his quarry with a hunter’s zeal until he bags it or loses it.
Sept. 11-13 are the dates for the summer retreat of the 158-member Liberal caucus at New Brunswick’s Algonquin Resort in St. Andrews by-the-Sea. Normally an annual event, the retreat wasn’t held for the last two years because of COVID. It is generally a relaxed affair, part social, part political. The leader and his lieutenants tell their backbenchers about all the wonderful things they are doing or contemplating doing, and the MPs report what they are learning from their constituents.
The caucus won’t be so relaxed this September. If it is, the Liberals would have to be in Never Neverland, not New Brunswick. The spectre of a re-energized opposition under Poilievre and the unhappiness of the government’s NDP partners cannot be ignored.
Four things need to happen.
First: The Liberals dare not give Poilievre an opening of three days to vilify them on free media while they are hidden away at the posh resort. They have to fight back. That means putting Justin Trudeau out front, not simply defending his government – that’s old news to the media – but being aggressive, attacking Poilievre with heavy weapons from the Liberal armoury to drum home the Grits’ message that Poilievre is no harmless populist who plays fast and loose with the truth – but that he is a dangerous demagogue with a disregard for democracy.
Second: The Liberals need to adopt a battle plan to protect themselves in Parliament from war against a militant right-wing opposition that has nothing to lose, that will not relent in its efforts to defeat the government, to hogtie every Liberal bill and to grind Commons committees to a halt.
Third: The Prime Minister must confirm the Liberals’ commitment to its promises to the NDP, announce a firm time schedule, from introduction of measures in the House through passage in the Senate, for the items the NDP wants fast-tracked. These start with free dental care for low-income families and include retraining to prepare petroleum workers for green energy jobs.
Fourth: Wake up that sleepy turtle.
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail and Maclean’s. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com