How many of the 23 individuals who have been prime minister since Confederation (13 Conservatives, 10 Liberals; 22 men, one woman) have really understood what they were getting into when they took on the job? The complexity of issues. The struggle to please at least some of the people some of the time. Jurisdictional disputes. Bureaucratic resistance to change. Inevitable frustrations. Disappointments. Unexpected crises. Pressure from all sides all the time. Caucus unrest. Opinion polls that move in one direction only – down.
Growing up at 24 Sussex Drive, Justin Trudeau saw the toll that stress and long hours took on his father and family. But he was still in his “sunny ways” phase when he swore the oath of office in 2015, and he could not have foreseen just how stressful his own path would soon become. None of his predecessors had to deal with a U.S. president remotely like Donald Trump. None had to face COVID-19 and Omicron, the anti-vaxx movement, a succession of climate crises, the discovery of hundreds of graves at former residential schools – not to mention massive, pandemic-induced budget deficits, looming inflation, shortages of workers. And let it be said, Trudeau has made his path more difficult than it needed to be with questionable decisions, some foolish behaviour and too many clumsy coverups.
In the view of Patrick Gossage, press secretary to Pierre Trudeau between 1976 and 1981 and author of a 1986 memoir, “Close to the Charisma,” 2022 will present Justin with especially challenging political battles. “Are he and his cabinet up for them?” Gossage asks in an article for Policy magazine. “Can he get us to the other side of the pandemic, show real progress on climate change and Indigenous reconciliation, find a way to deal with Quebec’s discriminatory Bill 21, all the while making a brave face, knowing he has few levers to pull to quiet inflation, while trying to be being seen to tackle high prices and a housing crisis?
“In foreign affairs he is faced with deteriorated relations with China which may provoke a military situation with Taiwan, a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and Lithuania, and a weak president presiding over a dangerously divided United States.”
Reviewing the prime minister’s year-end interviews on television and radio, the former press secretary found much to like. “From his obvious love of Vancouver’s White Spot hamburgers to his hating being late and keeping people waiting, to reading novels for relaxation … [he] was himself, again the bemused, charming young man who years ago came through in a riding everyone said he could not win – Montreal’s working class Papineau.”
But Gossage was left with a concern about the Liberals’ habit of overpromising and underdelivering – “making sweeping promises and stating how hard the government is working on fulfilling them, but often showing less real progress.”
The road ahead will be hard, he writes, “since Trudeau is no longer a popular star at home or, for that matter, abroad. A recent Angus Reid poll indicated one-in-three Canadians strongly disapprove of Trudeau, while only 6 per cent strongly approve of him. The Liberal party runs ahead of him.”
He gives him two years to rebuild his popularity and likeability. “These are huge selling jobs, and his people may have to loosen the short leash they have kept him on. … [T]his is an opportunity for leadership, in words and occasions.”
Can he do it? Gossage doesn’t say. He also doesn’t mention that when he was press secretary, Justin’s father did manage the feat, rebounding from defeat by Joe Clark’s Conservatives in 1979 to the election of a majority Liberal government in February 1980.
But that was 42 years ago – a different time, a different Trudeau.
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is a former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail. He is the co-author of Flora! A Woman in a Man’s World. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com