As voters across the United States go to the polls in tomorrow’s midterm elections, attention will be focused on two politicians whose names are not on ballots in any of the 50 states.
They are Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Will they or won’t they be candidates for president in 2024? The answer is each case will depend in large measure on the success or failure of their surrogates – the candidates whom they support for the House, Senate and governor – when the votes are counted tomorrow night (and probably well into Wednesday).
Trump may be a disgrace, a failed president, a malevolent and dangerous narcissist in the eyes of millions of Americans, but nothing, it seems, can make him go away. There he was on the weekend, drawing excited crowds in the thousands to frigid outdoor rallies in Iowa.
In Sioux City – where he endorsed the reelection of 89-year-old Republican Senator Chuck Grassley to an eighth consecutive six-year term – he thrilled supporters by coming to the precipice of declaring his intention to run for the White House again in 2024.
“In order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again,” he said. “Very, very, very, probably.”
How soon will he decide? Very soon, according to his campaign planners – by next Monday, Nov. 14, they suggest, assuming the midterm results auger well for Trump.
Meanwhile, President Biden raised the stakes with a major speech meant for the nation – but, astonishingly, not broadcast in real time by the three major TV networks. He warned of the risk of voter intimidation and political violence in tomorrow’s elections. “What we’re doing now is going to determine whether democracy will long endure,” he said.
Already the oldest president in history – he turns 80 later this month – Biden is still insisting he intends to seek re-election, and former president Barack Obama is campaigning flat out in support of his old running mate. Whether the Democratic party will stick with Biden will likely depend on what happens with control of Congress after tomorrow. The Senate is the crucial battleground. Its 100 seats are split 50-50, with Vice-President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. A change of one seat could flip the Senate to the GOP.
The closest Senate races are in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.
This is my watch list:
1. Georgia. Herschel Walker, the former football star, is the Trump candidate. He’s seeking to unseat Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock, the pastor at Martin Luther King Jr.’s Baptist church. Walker’s personal life is an utter mess, but the more interesting thing is the heavy support he is drawing from white evangelical Christians. However improbably, they accept him as a redeemed soul whose contrition has put him on the road to salvation.
2. Pennsylvania. The Trump candidate is the controversial television doctor, Dr. Oz (in real life, Mehmet Oz, a retired cardiothoracic surgeon). He’s trying to hold a vacant Republican seat against the Democrats’ lieutenant-governor John Fetterman.
3. Ohio. The Democrats hope congressman Tim Ryan can take this vacant Republican seat by defeating Trump-backed J.D. Vance, the hard-right author of the bestselling “Hillbilly Elegy.”
4. Florida. The Democrat, former Orlando police chief Val Demings, is reportedly gaining on Republican senator and 2016 presidential hopeful Marco Rubio.
5. Texas. Abortion is a huge issue in this race for governor. Ever-hopeful Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who made a singular run for the presidential nomination against Biden in 2020, is taking on the hard-line anti-abortion governor, Greg Abbott.
One caveat. Beware of predictions based on opinion polls. Pollsters say it is becoming uncommonly difficult to assemble a representative sample because 95 per cent of Americans won’t answer their phone when pollsters call.
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com