Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives are cruising to victory on Thursday, to a second term they have not earned and do not deserve.
Elected in 2018 with no experience in government, they made a bollox of many issues in the early going. Because they did not trust science or the scientists who rang the alarm, they did not adequately prepare for the onslaught of COVID. Thousands of elderly Ontarians in long-term care died miserable deaths in shockingly filthy conditions, neglected until it was far too late.
Being climate change skeptics, they wasted millions of taxpayer dollars in a doomed constitutional challenge to the federal carbon tax. When the “Freedom Convoy” descended on Ottawa, Ford enabled extremists to hold the city hostage while he dithered over reinforcing the municipal police. And his government has done nothing constructive to reduce gun possession and crime in the cities.
I’m not suggesting that any of the opposition parties, given the opportunity, would have been better than the Ford Tories; there is no reason to assume that. I’m simply arguing that Ontarians, having given the Progressive Conservatives a solid majority in 2018, were entitled to a first-class government; the one they got was fourth class.
Ontario’s complacent voters, however, seem inclined to give Ford a mulligan and disinclined to punish him on Thursday.
The major polls agree Ford will not do as well as he did four years ago – when he won 76 of the 124 seats with 40.5 per cent of the popular vote – but that he has enough support left (36 per cent, give or take a fraction) to win a second majority. Two poll aggregators – outfits that translate poll numbers into seats – predict that the Tories will take 74 seats (11 more than needed for a majority), while a third predicts 80 seats.
The Progressive Conservatives desperately need a majority because all three opposition party leaders have sworn they will not support a Ford minority government.
At the risk of being a fly in Ford’s ointment, I have to say I don’t get it. A politician with enough baggage to fill a dumpster and enough cronies to cart it away, a leader of a ministry notable for weak performers, a custodian of the province’s future who chooses asphalt over trees, highways over public transit, and cars over people – how is it possible, with support down by five to six points from 2018, for him to win four more seats, or only two fewer, than he won four years ago.
At McMaster University in Hamilton, Henry Jacek, an emeritus professor of political science, has been poring over the numbers. He notes that although the Progressive Conservatives had higher poll numbers in three earlier campaigns (1985, 1977 and 1975) than they have today, they failed each time to reach a majority. Is 36 per cent really enough this year?
As Jacek observes, two new right-wing protest parties, Ontario New Blue and the Ontario Party, are contesting this election. Combined, they are polling at about 4 per cent, support that is coming straight from the PCs. What’s more, the Greens are being given a solid chance of capturing a second legislature seat, Parry Sound-Muskoka, from the Tories; Guelph being the other.
On paper, the Liberals, who have been running two to four points ahead of the New Democrats in recent polls, would seem to be the primary obstacle to a second Ford majority. But maybe not. In an election with no change-making issues, no exciting leaders and a public that seems barely tuned in, name recognition and incumbency can be crucial. The New Democrats have the advantage of being better known in more ridings; 34 of its 39 MPPs are seeking re-election, compared to only two (of seven) Liberals.
The NDP vote is also more efficient, being concentrated in areas where the party is competitive, while Liberal support is spread more thinly.
If Ford falls short of a majority and the NDP finishes ahead of the Liberals, Andrea Horwath could be the next premier of Ontario.
Henry Jacek can see it. Can you?
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com