Half-measures do not win wars. They may delay defeat, but they won’t conquer a resolute enemy.
COVID-19 is such an enemy, and the war against the pandemic requires a no-holds-barred effort from all three levels: the federal government, the 13 provinces and territories, and the local and regional health authorities across the country. The weak link today, 20 months into the war, is at the provincial level where some leaders think they can win with one eye on the enemy and the other on the next provincial election.
The most egregious example is Alberta where Premier Jason Kenney rolled over and played dead from the get-go on the assumption that the pandemic would surely do the same when confronted with the United Conservative government’s unique defence, a blend of ignorance and neglect. Kenney is panicking now, desperate to regain control, but his people have paid a heavy price for his incompetence. The country’s most unpopular leader, according to the polls, Kenney has time on his side – the next Alberta election isn’t until spring 2023 – but his path may be too steep to climb.
In Quebec, where the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government had been building one of the nation’s stoutest, and most costly, defences against the pandemic, Premier Francois Legault abruptly surrendered to anti-vaxxers on a critical front last week. He and his health minister announced a policy reversal: vaccination would not be made mandatory, after all, for nurses and other staff in hospitals and nursing homes. The stated reason: there is such an acute shortage of health care workers that the province cannot afford to bar anyone, not even those who refuse to be vaccinated. The staff shortage is real, but it is not new. The suspected reason: Legault wants to lock in support on the right as CAQ gears up for the provincial election which must be held by next Oct. 3.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s mind is never far from his encounter with voters next June 2. Since COVID attacked, he has floundered in search of a winning formula, tightening/loosening/tightening restrictions in belated reactions to the rise and fall of the COVID rate. His Progressive Conservatives must be getting a message from their pollsters that is similar to the one Legault is receiving from his, because Ford – on the same day, Wednesday – made a similar announcement: no mandatory vaccinations for hospital workers (although they will still be required in nursing homes). He also cited an acute staff shortage.
The pollsters’ message to Ford must go like this: “Sir, you got off to a lousy start after the 2018 election, but you have recovered. Ontarians may not love you, but they think you know what you are doing. They are not comfortable with the alternatives. The NDP, your only real opposition, is not a serious threat. The voters have rejected Andrea Horwath in three elections. She is toast.
“You screwed up in the first wave of COVID. You didn’t know anything, and you wouldn’t listen to anyone. But the public has forgotten. And here’s the big picture, Mr. Ford. The people want to forget everything COVID. They don’t want to think about it, talk about it, or be reminded of it. They’ve had their fill of talk about sickness and death in long-term care homes. That’s all in the past. They want to hear what you are going to do to make their lives better going forward. Your mini-budget on Thursday showed you heard the message. You will try to expand your party’s base by spending the most public money, not where it is needed most, in education and health, but where it will do the most political good – for example, on bigger and bigger highways, like the Bradford Bypass to link Highways 400 and 404 and your new Highway 413 across the top of the GTA.
“It may be true, Premier, that 413 is unnecessary, a black hole that will swallow billions of taxpayer dollars for no appreciable public benefit, that will reduce the commuting time of suburban drivers by less than a minute. That’s not the point. The 413 is the Tory talisman, the magic potion that will bury COVID as an election issue. It will show voters in suburbia how much love – let’s say, $10 billion worth – your government feels for them.”
In fact, the mini-budget went so far as to define a wedge issue for the campaign – labeling the target voters in the suburbs as “everyday people,” not to be confused with “downtown activists,” an elite to be tied to the NDP and the Liberals (if the Ontario Grits still have a heartbeat).
Does anyone remember the 1971 provincial election, the one fought in the GTA over the Spadina Expressway, which was being constructed to speed suburban motorists to the heart of Toronto? The issue: to complete it or stop it. The PCs, under their new leader William Davis, vowed to “Stop the Spadina.” Fifty years later, the sides are reversed. But don’t bet against Doug Ford and his “everyday people.” They’ve got the early edge on the “downtown activists.”
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail and Maclean’s. His new book, Flora! A Woman in a Man’s World, co-authored with the late Flora MacDonald, has just been published. His column appears Mondays. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com.