Swing Ridings In Ontario

The 2025 Ontario election is just under a week away. As an exercise, we thought we would try to identify which ridings might be the closest ridings. To do so, we pulled the results from the 2018 and 2022 election results and calculated the winner’s margin of victory as a percentage of the total number of votes that were cast.

On average, winning candidates won by about 10% of the votes cast in 2018 and 8% of the votes cast in 2022.

Election	Average	SD
2018 General Election	0.10	0.07
2022 General Election	0.08	0.05

And we can visualize the distributions of the margins of victory this way. There’s not a lot that stands out here except to say that the 2022 election appears to have had noticeably fewer landslides. There were about six districts in 2018 with margins of victory greater than 20% of the ballots cast, none in 2022.

But what we are really interested in are the specific districts. So, voila!

Election	ElectoralDistrictName	NameOfCandidates	Winning Party	First-Second	Margin
2018 General Election	Scarborough—Guildwood	Mitzie Hunter	Liberal	Liberal-PC	0.001
2018 General Election	Thunder Bay—Atikokan	Judith Monteith-Farrell	NDP	NDP-Liberal	0.001
2018 General Election	Brampton Centre	Sara Singh	NDP	NDP-PC	0.002
2018 General Election	Ottawa West—Nepean	Jeremy Roberts	PC	PC-NDP	0.002
2018 General Election	Don Valley West	Kathleen Wynne	Liberal	Liberal-PC	0.002
2018 General Election	Brantford—Brant	Will Bouma	PC	PC-NDP	0.006
2018 General Election	Sault Ste. Marie	Ross Romano	PC	PC-NDP	0.007
2018 General Election	Brampton West	Amarjot Sandhu	PC	PC-NDP	0.007
2018 General Election	Brampton North	Kevin Yarde	NDP	NDP-PC	0.007
2018 General Election	Kitchener—Conestoga	Mike Harris	PC	PC-NDP	0.009
2018 General Election	Kitchener South—Hespeler	Amy Fee	PC	PC-NDP	0.010
2018 General Election	Eglinton—Lawrence	Robin Martin	PC	PC-Liberal	0.011
2018 General Election	Scarborough—Rouge Park	Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	PC-NDP	0.012
2018 General Election	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Jill Andrew	NDP	NDP-Liberal	0.014
2018 General Election	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Michael Gravelle	Liberal	Liberal-NDP	0.015
2018 General Election	Don Valley East	Michael Coteau	Liberal	Liberal-PC	0.016
2018 General Election	St. Catharines	Jennie Stevens	NDP	NDP-PC	0.016
2018 General Election	York South—Weston	Faisal Hassan	NDP	NDP-PC	0.017
2018 General Election	Orléans	Marie-France Lalonde	Liberal	Liberal-PC	0.017
2018 General Election	Oshawa	Jennifer French	NDP	NDP-PC	0.018
2018 General Election	Peterborough—Kawartha	Dave Smith	PC	PC-NDP	0.021
2018 General Election	Cambridge	Belinda Karahalios	PC	PC-NDP	0.025
2018 General Election	Essex	Taras Natyshak	NDP	NDP-PC	0.026
2018 General Election	Scarborough Centre	Christina Mitas	PC	PC-NDP	0.028
2018 General Election	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	Christine Hogarth	PC	PC-NDP	0.030
2018 General Election	Mississauga—Malton	Deepak Anand	PC	PC-NDP	0.035
2018 General Election	Niagara Centre	Jeff Burch	NDP	NDP-PC	0.036
2018 General Election	Mississauga—Lakeshore	Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	PC-Liberal	0.040
2018 General Election	Humber River—Black Creek	Tom Rakocevic	NDP	NDP-PC	0.041
2018 General Election	Brampton South	Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	PC-NDP	0.041
2018 General Election	Oakville	Stephen Crawford	PC	PC-Liberal	0.044
2018 General Election	Ajax	Rod Phillips	PC	PC-NDP	0.046
2018 General Election	Etobicoke Centre	Kinga Surma	PC	PC-Liberal	0.046
2018 General Election	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	Amanda Simard	PC	PC-Liberal	0.049
2018 General Election	Flamborough—Glanbrook	Donna Skelly	PC	PC-NDP	0.050
2018 General Election	Whitby	Lorne Coe	PC	PC-NDP	0.051
2018 General Election	Pickering—Uxbridge	Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	PC-NDP	0.056
2018 General Election	Ottawa South	John Fraser	Liberal	Liberal-PC	0.059
2018 General Election	Ottawa—Vanier	Nathalie Des Rosiers	Liberal	Liberal-NDP	0.059
2018 General Election	Mississauga East—Cooksville	Kaleed Rasheed	PC	PC-Liberal	0.061
2018 General Election	Kingston and the Islands	Ian Arthur	NDP	NDP-Liberal	0.062
2018 General Election	Kenora—Rainy River	Greg Rickford	PC	PC-NDP	0.062
2018 General Election	Milton	Parm Gill	PC	PC-Liberal	0.063
2018 General Election	Burlington	Jane Mckenna	PC	PC-NDP	0.064
2018 General Election	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	Sandy Shaw	NDP	NDP-PC	0.067
2018 General Election	Nipissing	Vic Fedeli	PC	PC-NDP	0.070
2022 General Election	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	Doug Downey	PC	PC-Liberal	0.003
2022 General Election	Eglinton—Lawrence	Robin Martin	PC	PC-Liberal	0.006
2022 General Election	Oshawa	Jennifer French	NDP	NDP-PC	0.008
2022 General Election	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	Christine Hogarth	PC	PC-Liberal	0.008
2022 General Election	Niagara Centre	Jeff Burch	NDP	NDP-PC	0.009
2022 General Election	Beaches—East York	Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	Liberal	Liberal-NDP	0.010
2022 General Election	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Jill Andrew	NDP	NDP-Liberal	0.012
2022 General Election	York South—Weston	Michael Ford	PC	PC-NDP	0.012
2022 General Election	Ottawa West—Nepean	Chandra Pasma	NDP	NDP-PC	0.012
2022 General Election	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	PC-Liberal	0.012
2022 General Election	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Lise Vaugeois	NDP	NDP-PC	0.015
2022 General Election	Thunder Bay—Atikokan	Kevin Holland	PC	PC-NDP	0.015
2022 General Election	Mississauga East—Cooksville	Kaleed Rasheed	PC	PC-Liberal	0.016
2022 General Election	Humber River—Black Creek	Tom Rakocevic	NDP	NDP-Liberal	0.016
2022 General Election	Milton	Parm Gill	PC	PC-Liberal	0.020
2022 General Election	Ajax	Patrice Barnes	PC	PC-Liberal	0.021
2022 General Election	Mississauga—Erin Mills	Sheref Sabawy	PC	PC-Liberal	0.021
2022 General Election	Haldimand—Norfolk	Bobbi Ann Brady	IND	IND-PC	0.022
2022 General Election	Nepean	Lisa Macleod	PC	PC-Liberal	0.022
2022 General Election	Parry Sound—Muskoka	Graydon Smith	PC	PC-Green	0.023
2022 General Election	Don Valley West	Stephanie Bowman	Liberal	Liberal-PC	0.024
2022 General Election	St. Catharines	Jennie Stevens	NDP	NDP-PC	0.024
2022 General Election	Scarborough Centre	David Smith	PC	PC-Liberal	0.025
2022 General Election	Willowdale	Stan Cho	PC	PC-Liberal	0.029

Now there are limitations here. First, the table itself is not very readable. We need to build some interactivity to this website. On the to do list. Second, this doesn’t take into account any information about whether there are incumbents who are running or not running or any new high-profile candidates. And lastly it doesn’t take into account the Greens who, by virtue of being the fourth party, are going to be vulnerable regardless.

That said, it’s also not nothing. So, let’s dive in.

One thing we can do is count the swing ridings by who the two leading parties were. In 2018, there were 20 PC-NDP races and 9 NDP-PC races. But in 2022, there were 11 PC-Liberal races.

Election	First-Second	n
2022 General Election	PC-Liberal	11
2022 General Election	NDP-PC	5
2022 General Election	NDP-Liberal	2
2022 General Election	PC-NDP	2
2022 General Election	IND-PC	1
2022 General Election	Liberal-NDP	1
2022 General Election	Liberal-PC	1
2022 General Election	PC-Green	1
2018 General Election	PC-NDP	20
2018 General Election	NDP-PC	9
2018 General Election	PC-Liberal	7
2018 General Election	Liberal-PC	5
2018 General Election	NDP-Liberal	3
2018 General Election	Liberal-NDP	2

If we look at the specific ridings a few specific ridings stand out.

Thunder Bay stands out as a city that has close districts in both elections.
There were more than a few PC-Liberal races in the outer Greater Toronto area. Specifically,
- Milton
- Ajax
- Mississauga-Streetsville
- Willowdale and
- Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Oshawa and Toronto St.Paul’s stand out as repeat swing ridings, both narrowly held by the NDP
NDP-PC competition seems to emerge in outer centers like St. Catharine’s, Niagara-Centre and Thunder Bay

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