Let’s step back for a moment and take a measured look at what has happened on Parliament Hill in the past two weeks.
Imagine! For the first time in memory (in mine, at least), the party in power – a minority government, at that – has all of the opposition parties (four of them now) lined up in support of not one, but two, of the government’s core social policies.
First came the five-year $30 billion national daycare program negotiated by Prime Minister Trudeau with the provinces and territories last March to make $10-a-day daycare available to families across the country. That legislation, Bill C-35, passed second reading – approval in principle – on Feb. 1 by a vote of 323 to 0.
How big is that achievement? I’d say universal daycare is the 2020s counterpart of the 1960s medicare, a historic achievement by an earlier minority Liberal government – Lester Pearson’s –the big difference being the epic battle Pearson and Co. had to wage to overcome the opposition of the Diefenbaker Conservatives who fought the introduction of “socialized medicine” to the bitter end in Parliament. Justin Trudeau was spared that battle when Pierre Poilievre, finding himself alone in opposition to a program had been embraced by public opinion and endorsed by all 13 premiers, flipped his Tory caucus to support Bill-C35 – this after he had spent months denouncing the daycare plan as a prime example of Trudeau’s “reckless spending” and promising to kill it “when” he became prime minister.
Next came the refinancing of the Canada Health Act. Last week, the Liberals offered the provinces $196.1 billion over 10 years to support their health care services. The meeting on Feb. 7 produced three intriguing developments: the premiers acknowledged that the federal well is not bottomless and, with reservations here and there, bought Ottawa’s offer; they conceded that the feds were within their rights to require that provincial health services meet basic national standards; and they agreed their health ministries would report their performance, as measured against the national standards.
If the health care negotiations follow the daycare pattern, Trudeau will give the premiers time to reflect. Then he’ll pick them off one by one in bilateral negotiations by extending a carrot – a share of the $25 billion the Liberals have set aside for provinces with particular funding needs, such as for family doctors, mental health, surgical backlogs, and health data systems.
He won’t have much picking-off to do this time. The Atlantic provinces are ready to sign; Ontario’s Doug Ford could hardly wait to opt in; Quebec Premier Francois Legault grumbled about constitutional interference, but wild horses couldn’t keep him from the Ottawa money; Trudeau’s fiercest foe, Alberta’s election-bound Danielle Smith, did her math and realized the deal would bring her province $518 million in new money. The tiger turned pussycat. “We’re going to be sure we’re not leaving any money on the table,” she declared.
Back on Parliament Hill, Poilievre experienced a similar transformation. He had to know what was coming last Tuesday when he saw premiers nodding, not shaking, their heads as Trudeau addressed them. Next day, he did another 180. He assured reporters that he was all in with the Liberals and that as prime minister he would, of course, honour the 10-year deal.
Poilievre is trying to move his party closer to the “mushy middle,” where the votes are. But his comfort zone is in opposition. His instinct, as was John Diefenbaker’s, is to attack and blame, not to reflect and seek compromise. The sight of a microphone can set him off, as it did last week. After telling reporters he would honour Trudeau’s agreement, he might have smiled and turned away. Instead. he launched his familiar attack on the prime minister, claiming that Trudeau had wasted so much money that he didn’t have enough for today’s health needs, let alone leave anything for a future Conservative government to fix a broken system.
A question for Poilievre: Sir, as PM, would you try to build a world-class health system, or would you do nothing and blame the Liberals?
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail and Maclean’s. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com