Although Justin Trudeau’s Liberals probably have the thinnest public support of any federal government in Canadian history, a shade less than one-third of the two-thirds of the eligible voters who cast ballots on Sept. 20 – or roughly 20 per cent of the entire electorate – we should probably stop calling them a minority government.
It cannot be called a “coalition” government because its minority partner is subject to change from issue to issue and vote to vote. The Bloc Québécois is the Liberals’ partner for the debate on the speech from the throne; most days it will be the NDP. Because the Liberals are assured of having the ongoing support of at least one minor party, they can function as though they have a majority. “Flexible majority government” would be an appropriate description.
The last thing the Liberals, New Democrats, Blocists or woebegone Greens want is to face the voters again any time soon. Not for at least two years, preferably three, maybe even four. Only the official opposition Conservatives will bluster about defeating the “corrupt” – readers may enter their favourite pejorative here – Trudeau government. It is a phony act. The Conservatives, excepting the nitwits and masochists among them, are terrified of an election while the party is busy tearing itself apart over its leadership. Until that familiar and destructive Tory exercise has exhausted itself, the party has nothing to gain and everything to lose by even contemplating forcing Canadians into another trek to the polls.
The opposition having defanged itself, the Liberals have a clear run to confront the serious threats facing the country – the real issues, not the silly ones that too often distract MPs.
The issue of greatest immediacy is the COVID-19 pandemic. Wishful thinking and political posturing will not make it go away. The emergence in southern Africa last week of another variant – B.1.1.529 dubbed “Omicron” (pronounced ah-muh-kraan) – is alarming governments and crashing stock markets around the world. By the weekend, travel bans and passenger quarantines were being reimposed by multiple countries, including Canada. Meanwhile, the federal and provincial governments are still struggling with the older strains of COVID; in Ontario, while deaths continue to decline, daily new cases are rising, to 964, a six-month high, in Sunday’s report.
A second threat the Trudeau government must confront is the failure of his government, like that of the Harper Conservatives before it, to seriously combat climate change. The federal environment commissioner reported last week that Canada has the worst record among G7 countries for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. He cited the Trudeau Liberals for sluggish leadership and unfulfilled promises – an indictment that contradicts the warm and fuzzy image the prime minister likes to paint of Canada leading the developed world into a brave new green world.
A third major issue is the need to reboot the economy for the post-pandemic era. Some sectors are starved for workers. According to a new report, one million positions are going unfilled in the labour market. The problem is especially acute in the low-wage hospitality industry – hotels, bars, restaurants, etc. The traditional remedy would be increased wages, although perhaps not now, with inflation raising its ugly head again.
Finally (for today’s purposes) there is the cancer that has been eating away at the Canadian Armed Forces in recent decades. That’s sexual misconduct in ranks high and low. The government is facing an astonishing 18,796 claims for financial compensation from present and former personnel who claim to have been subjected to sexual abuse of varying kinds and degrees.
Last week, the new defence minister, Anita Anand, announced the firing of Admiral Art McDonald as chief of the defence staff. He is being replaced by General Wayne Eyre, the interim chief since McDonald’s suspension last February.
A new minister and a new top general are mere bandages applied to a gaping wound. Their appointments do not address the fundamental issue – to change the culture of the military. That surgery is the real challenge for Justin Trudeau and his flexible majority government.
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens is an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail and Maclean’s. His latest book, Flora! A Woman in a Man’s Word, has just been published by McGill-Queen’s University Press. He welcomes comments at geoffstevens40@gmail.com.