The U.S. presidential election and the Brexit referendum are the most recent prominent examples of the shortcomings within the polling industry. They are by no means unusual or isolated illustrations. Indeed we have witnessed some provincial elections in Canada, notably in Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, where late pre-election polls have also been substantially off the mark.

Otto von Bismarck, Germany’s “Iron Chancellor” in the 19th century knew whereof he was speaking when he observed, “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best.”

It’s a sentiment Justin Trudeau would agree with. Or would he, as he emerges from the most ragged week of his young prime ministry?

It may make sense taking a look back at history as we are trying to understand what has been happening south of the border over the last months. Ever since Donald Trump formally announced his candidacy in June 2015, most observers where hit by surprise as the campaign unfolded through a series of events that culminated in the electoral outcome of November 8. If viewed through a broader historical lens, however, these developments are surprisingly consistent with a deeper pattern of presidential politics. 

Earlier this month at Western, I spoke to PhD students in political science about how to publish. Here are the speaking notes I used for that presentation.

The Five “Ws” and One “H” of Publishing

I’ve structured my presentation on academic publishing around six questions: Who? What? Where? When? Why? And How?

Let me begin with Why you should publish.

Why should you publish?

build a CV for scholarships and job market

get in the habit of publishing (a key aspect of this career)