Recent polls have suggested that Donald Trump was pulling uncomfortably close to Hillary Clinton, prior to the first televised debate between them. His most significant appeal has been to represent a change in the status quo of governmental gridlock, and being opposed by a candidate little more popular than himself, despite his multitude of personal flaws. That momentum toward the Republicans seems to have been arrested by Trump's performance in that opening encounter, and his behaviour in the days that followed.

The Justin Trudeau government has enjoyed remarkably clear sailing for its first 11 months. 

The Prime Minister’s personal popularity is the envy of rock stars and hockey heroes. The polls continue to show that in an election today the Liberals would command a larger share of the popular vote and win more seats than they did when they elected a majority government last October.

But there are clouds on the horizon. The easy sailing is over as the Good Ship Trudeau confronts its first stiff head winds, along with some smaller but dangerous squalls.

Pundits have suggested for months that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election would likely be determined by which candidate became the focus of the campaign. Given the unprecedented unpopularity of both major party candidates, the astute strategy is to make one's opponent the election story. If the electoral focus is upon Hillary Clinton, it would help Donald Trump, and if it is about Trump, that should assist Clinton.

There are times when pundits and pollsters just can’t get their acts together, times when the advice tendered by columnists and commentators seems to fly in the face of public opinion as reported by polling companies.

This is one of those times, both in Canada and the United States.